IMF Working Papers

From International Monetary Fund
International Monetary Fund, Washington, DC USA.
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2025/091: The Energy Origins of the Global Inflation Surge

Jorge Alvarez and Thomas Kroen

2025/090: Missing Home-Buyers and Rent Inflation: The Role of Interest Rates and Mortgage Underwriting Standards

Alessia De Stefani

2025/089: Leveraging Digital Technologies in Boosting Tax Collection

Manabu Nose, Nicola Pierri and Jiro Honda

2025/088: Testing the Liquidity Support Effects of the U.S. Treasury Buyback Program

Jing Zhou

2025/087: Preventing Fiscal Crises under Decentralization: Intergovernmental Policies and Institutions

Ryota Nakatani

2025/086: Debt-at-Risk

Davide Furceri, Domenico Giannone, Faizaan Kisat, Waikei Lam and Hongchi Li

2025/085: Using Simulations for Cyber Stress Testing Exercises

Tanai Khiaonarong, Kasperi Korpinen and Emran Islam

2025/084: Impact Dynamics of Natural Disasters and the Case of Pacific Island Countries

Choonsung Lim and Yue Zhou

2025/083: Fiscal Financing and Investment Irreversibility: The Role of Dividend Taxation

Matteo Ghilardi and Roy Zilberman

2025/082: Labor Market Matching Efficiency and Koreas Low Post-Pandemic Unemployment

Hua Chai

2025/081: Power Hungry: How AI Will Drive Energy Demand

Christian Bogmans, Patricia Gomez-Gonzalez, Ganchimeg Ganpurev, Giovanni Melina, Andrea Pescatori and Sneha Thube

2025/080: Shifting Advantages: Do Subsidies Shape Cross-Border Investment?

Michele Ruta and Monika Sztajerowska

2025/079: Inflation Targeting and the Legacy of High Inflation

Luis Jácome, Nicolas Magud, Samuel Pienknagura and Martin Uribe

2025/078: K Wasn’t Built in a Day

Adriano Fernandes and Rodolfo Rigato

2025/077: IMF-ENV: Integrating Climate, Energy, and Trade Policies in a General Equilibrium Framework

Jean Chateau, Hugo Rojas-Romagosa, Sneha Thube and Dominique van der Mensbrugghe

2025/076: The Global Impact of AI: Mind the Gap

Eugenio Cerutti, Antonio Garcia Pascual, Yosuke Kido, Longji Li, Giovanni Melina, Marina Mendes Tavares and Philippe Wingender

2025/075: “Checking the Receipts” Audits of Emergency Finance: A preliminary analysis of the implementation of the Letter of Intent commitment on audits in 50 countries

Sebastiaan Pompe, Alice French, Martin Aldcroft and Camilla Fredriksen

2025/074: A New GCC Fiscal Era – A Look at the Macro and Firm-Level Impact of Tax Reforms

Anja Baum, Dorothy Nampewo and Greta Polo

2025/073: Do ESG Considerations Matter for Emerging Market Sovereign Spreads?

Carmen Avila-Yiptong, Mahamoud Islam, Ayah Said and Chima Simpson-Bell

2025/072: Firm Financing During Sudden Stops: Can Governments Substitute Markets?

Miguel Acosta-Henao, Andrés Fernández, Patricia Gomez-Gonzalez and Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan

2025/071: Digital Financial Inclusion and Income Inequality in China

Yan Shen, Fei Han and Yanlong Li

2025/070: Europe’s Debt (Un)Sustainability: Looking Through Bohn’s Magnifying Glass

Ales Bulir and Khyati Chauhan

2025/069: Bidding Behavior in Italian Treasury Auctions: The Role of Top-ups

Daniela Marchettini

2025/068: AI Adoption and Inequality

Emma Rockall, Marina Mendes Tavares and Carlo Pizzinelli

2025/067: AI and Productivity in Europe

Florian Misch, Ben Park, Carlo Pizzinelli and Galen Sher

2025/066: Unconventional Monetary Policies in Small Open Economies

Jesper Lindé, Marcin Kolasa and Stefan Laseen

2025/065: Demand for Safe Assets and Spillovers from the Global Dollar Cycle

Cian Allen, Rudolfs Bems, Lukas Boer and Racha Moussa

2025/064: Micro-Evidence on the Consumption Impact of Income-Support Policies During COVID-19

Metodij Hadzi-Vaskov, Emiliano Luttini and Luca Ricci

2025/063: The Impact of Labor Litigation Cases on Firm-level Productivity in Brazil

Swarnali Hannan and Samuel Pienknagura

2025/062: Credit Risk Where It’s Due: Carbon Pricing and Firm Defaults

Stefan Löschenbrand, Martin Maier, Laurent Millischer and Florian Resch

2025/061: Trade Reform in Services: Structural Change and Production Networks

Adam Jakubik and Wentao Zhou

2025/060: Privacy Technologies & The Digital Economy

Parma Bains and Tamas Gaidosch

2025/059: Fiscal Determinants of Domestic Sovereign Bond Yields in Emerging Market and Developing Economies

Manabu Nose and Jeta Menkulasi

2025/058: Monetary Shocks and Labor Markets: Evidence from Online Job Vacancy Postings

Serhan Cevik, Alice Fan and Sadhna Naik

2025/057: Covered Interest Parity in Emerging Markets: Measurement and Drivers

Mai Dao and Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas

2025/056: Could Digital Currencies Lead to the Disappearance of Cash from the Market?

Marco Pani and Rodolfo Maino

2025/055: Lost Generations? Fertility and Economic Growth in Europe

Serhan Cevik

2025/054: The Insurer Channel of Monetary Policy

Divya Kirti and Akshat Singh

2025/053: Interactions Between Public and Private Sector Wages and Inflation in Mongolia

Tigran Poghosyan

2025/052: Extreme Weather Events, Agricultural Output, and Insurance: Evidence from South America

Juliette Caucheteux, Jonas Nauerz and Svetlana Vtyurina

2025/051: Evaluating Historical Episodes using Shock Decompositions in the DSGE Model

Zamid Aligishiev, Michael Ben-Gad and Joseph Pearlman

2025/050: Not all Housing Cycles are Created Equal: Macroeconomic Consequences of Housing Booms

Bruno Albuquerque, Eugenio Cerutti, Yosuke Kido and Richard Varghese

2025/049: Pension Reform and Stock Market Development

Shujaat Khan, Bo Li and Yunhui Zhao

2025/048: Monetary Policy and Inflation Expectations: High-Frequency Evidence from Brazil

Carlos Goncalves, Mauro Rodrigues and Fernando Genta

2025/047: Economic Benefits from Deep Integration: 20 years after the 2004 EU Enlargement

Robert Beyer, Claire Li and Sebastian Weber

2025/046: Understanding the Macroeconomic Effects of Natural Disasters

Ha Nguyen, Alan Feng and Mercedes Garcia-Escribano

2025/045: Understanding Trade Dynamics in Sub-Saharan Africa

Hany Abdel-Latif, Khushboo Khandelwal and Longmei Zhang

2025/044: Prometheus Unbound: What Makes Fintech Grow?

Serhan Cevik

2025/043: Artificial Intelligence and the Philippine Labor Market: Mapping Occupational Exposure and Complementarity

Micholo Cucio and Tristan Hennig

2025/042: A New Perspective on Temperature Shocks

Nooman Rebei

2025/041: Sandcastles and Financial Systems: A Sandpile Metaphor

Francesco Luna and Luisa Zanforlin

2025/040: Europe’s Productivity Weakness: Firm-Level Roots and Remedies

Oyun Adilbish, Diego Cerdeiro, Romain Duval, Gee Hee Hong, Luca Mazzone, Lorenzo Rotunno, Hasan Toprak and Maryam Vaziri

2025/039: Transport Frictions and the Pass-Through of Global Price Shocks in a Spatial Model of Low-Income Countries

Lisa Martin, Christopher Adam and Douglas Gollin

2025/038: Strengthening Fiscal Frameworks in the Presence of Rising Risk of Natural Disasters

Olusegun Ayodele Akanbi, Jessie Kilembe and Do Yeon Park

2025/037: Climate News and Asset Valuations: Insights from Latin America

Muhsin Çiftçi and Christina Kolerus

2025/036: Government Debt and Growth: The Role of R&D

Can Sever

2025/035: Optimal Interest Rate Tightening with Financial Fragility

Damien Capelle and Ken Teoh

2025/034: TLTRO Spillovers Outside the Euro Area

Carolina Lopez-Quiles and Adil Mohommad

2025/033: The HIPC Initiative and China’s Emergence as a Lender: post hoc or propter hoc?

Tito Cordella, Maia Cufre and Andrea Presbitero

2025/032: Social Security Reforms, Retirement and Sectoral Decisions

Bruno Delalibera, Pedro Ferreira and Rafael Machado Parente

2025/031: An Evaluation of World Economic Outlook Forecasts: Any Evidence of Asymmetry?

Emrehan Aktuğ and Abolfazl Rezghi

2025/030: The Labor Market Decisions of Older Workers in Ageing Economies: Evidence from Spain and the UK

Rodrigo Barrela, Pragyan Deb, Gloria Li and Carlo Pizzinelli

2025/029: Firm Performance, Business Supports and Zombification over the Pandemic

Alexander Amundsen, Amélie Lafrance-Cooke and Danny Leung

2025/028: Carbon Pricing at Export Markets: Trade-Related Implications in Trinidad and Tobago

Ilya Stepanov, Diego Gutierrez and Camilo Tovar Mora

2025/027: Spillovers from Large Emerging Economies: How Dominant Is China?

Hany Abdel-Latif and Adina Popescu

2025/026: The Economic Costs of Temperature Uncertainty

Luca Bettarelli, Davide Furceri, Michael Ganslmeier and Marc Schiffbauer

2025/025: Inattentiveness and the Investment Channel of Monetary Policy

Abolfazl Rezghi

2025/024: Long-Term Debt and Short-Term Rates: Fixed-Rate Mortgages and Monetary Transmission

Alessia De Stefani and Rui Mano

2025/023: Production Network Features of Industrial Policy

Vanya Georgieva

2025/022: Designing Expenditure Policy Conditionality in IMF-Supported Programs

Emine Hanedar and Zsuzsa Munkacsi

2025/021: Domestic Market Integration and Regional Growth: The Case of Mexico

Felipe Fonseca, Samir Jahan, Irving Llamosas‐Rosas, Tomohide Mineyama, Erick Rangel‐Gonzalez and Hugo Tuesta

2025/020: External Knowledge, R&D, and Innovation: Mapping the Market for Technology Across European Industries

Christoph Grimpe, Fuad Hasanov, Wolfgang Sofka, Geoffrey Borchardt and Philip Schulz

2025/019: A Debt Crisis with Strategic Investors: Changes in Demand and the Role of Market Power

Ricardo Alves Monteiro

2025/018: Competitiveness and Productivity in the Baltics: Common Shocks, Different Implications

Saioa Armendariz, Carlos de Resende, Alice Fan, Gianluigi Ferrucci, Bingjie Hu, Sadhna Naik and Can Ugur

2025/017: Strengthening Tax Governance Through Legal Design

Lydia Sofrona, Christophe Waerzeggers and Brendan Crowley

2025/016: Foreign Aid and Conflicts: The Effects of 9/11 on Donor Behavior

Rabah Arezki, Youssouf Camara, Patrick Imam and Kangni Kpodar

2025/015: Shocks and Shields: Macroeconomic Institutions During Commodity Price Swings

Rabah Arezki, Patrick Imam, Kangni Kpodar and Dao Le-Van

2025/014: State Capacity and Growth Regimes

Patrick Imam and Jonathan Temple

2025/013: The Macroeconomic and Welfare Benefits of Building Resilience in Disaster-Prone Developing Countries

Yehenew Endegnanew, Rafael Goncalves, Samuel Mann, Marina Mendes Tavares and Harold Zavarce

2025/012: Frayed Societies: Decoding the Interplay between Conflicts and Gender Inequality

Paola Ganum and Can Sever

2025/011: Portfolio Inertia and Expected Excess Returns in Currency Markets: Evidence from Advanced Economies

Bas Bakker

2025/010: Is Tax Policy Costly Industrial Policy in Mozambique?

Santos Bila, Utkarsh Kumar and Alexis Meyer-Cirkel

2025/009: Understanding Agricultural Output in Mozambique: Using remote sensing to initiate a discussion on development

Kelsee Bratley and Alexis Meyer-Cirkel

2025/008: Drivers and Effects of Residence and Citizenship by Investment

Sofronis Clerides, Maria Coelho, Alexander Klemm and Christos Kotsogiannis

2025/007: Shocked: Electricity Price Volatility Spillovers in Europe

Serhan Cevik and Yueshu Zhao

2025/006: Foreign Aid and (Big) Shocks: Evidence from Natural Disasters

Rabah Arezki, Youssouf Camara, Patrick Imam and Kangni Kpodar

2025/005: Immigration and Local Inflation

Philip Barrett and Brandon Tan

2025/004: The Macroeconomic Impact of Droughts in Uruguay: A General Equilibrium Analysis Using the Soil Moisture Deficit Index

Jean François Clevy and Christopher Evans

2025/003: Drivers of Inflation in the Caucasus and Central Asia

Maria Atamanchuk, Alejandro Hajdenberg, Dalia Kadissi, Giulio Lisi and Nasir Rao

2025/002: The Scalability of Credit-Enhanced EM Climate Debt: What Role Can Guarantees, Collateralization, Securitizations, and Investment Funds Play?

Peter Lindner, Ananthakrishnan Prasad and Jean-Marie Masse

2025/001: Market Power in the Middle East

Yevgeniya Korniyenko, Ahmed Tohamy and Weining Xin

2024/264: Chinese Housing Market Sentiment Index: A Generative AI Approach and An Application to Monetary Policy Transmission

Kaiji Chen and Yunhui Zhao

2024/263: Trade Policy and Jobs in Vietnam: The Unintended Consequences of US-China Trade Tensions

Lorenzo Rotunno, Sanchari Roy, Anri Sakakibara and Pierre-Louis Vézina

2024/262: Industrial Policy and State Ownership: How Do Commercial Banks Allocate Credit in China?

Ying Xu

2024/261: On Cross-Border Crypto Flows: Measurement Drivers and Policy Implications

Pamela Cardozo, Andrés Fernández, Jerzy Jiang and Felipe Rojas

2024/260: Monetary Policy and Inflation Scares

Christopher Erceg, Jesper Lindé and Mathias Trabandt

2024/259: Industrialization and the Big Push: Theory and Evidence from South Korea

Jaedo Choi and Younghun Shim

2024/258: Chasing the Dream: Industry-Level Productivity Developments in Europe

Serhan Cevik, Sadhna Naik and Keyra Primus

2024/257: A Confidence-Financial Inclusion Nexus in the Caucasus and Central Asia?

Kalin Tintchev and Kady Keita

2024/256: The Urgency of Conflict Prevention – A Macroeconomic Perspective

Hannes Mueller, Christopher Rauh, Benjamin Seimon and Raphael Espinoza